Mac games

Akron Zips vs. Northern Illinois Huskies 7:30 PM ET

Thursday - MAC Championship – Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Akron won the tiebreaker over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green to get to the MAC title game and the Zips will be looking for their first ever MAC Championship. For those who don’t know Akron very well, this is not that much of a surprise. The Zips finished 6-5 last season but were the only bowl eligible team not to go to the post season last year so they are out for some redemption. A loss in this game will even the record at 6-6 and send them home again this year.

Northern Illinois took care of Western Michigan to win the MAC West in a tiebreaker over Toledo, who it defeated the prior week. The Huskies ended the season winning six of their final seven games, the only loss a surprising 14-point defeat at home against Ball St. They finished 7-4 on the season and were a couple plays away from going 9-2. Northern Illinois won its final three road games after starting the season 0-3 away from home.

The Zips lead the MAC and are 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 322 ypg, just ahead of Toledo. It was a great turnaround after Akron finished 98th in the same category a season ago. A demoralizing 20-0 loss at home to Army dropped its record to 3-4 but instead of throwing in the towel, the Zips fought on to win three of their final four games to get to this point. The defense allowed only 10.8 ppg over that four game stretch and gave up an amazing 226 total yards in the final two games combined.

The Zips allowed two teams to surpass 500 total yards this season and one of those was Northern Illinois. The Huskies racked up 536 total yards in that overtime loss which was one of five games that they generated at least 500 yards. Northern Illinois finished the regular season 1st in the MAC and 15th in the country in total offense with 451.7 ypg. The Huskies averaged 32.6 ppg on the season and scored 31 or more points eight times on the season including their final three games.

The Northern Illinois defense strengthened over the final four games as its points allowed decreased in each contest. The Huskies finished 4th in the conference in total defense but it was very inconsistent this season. They allowed single digits to four opponents but also allowed 31 or more points four times as well. It all balanced out however as they finished 1st in the MAC in scoring defense, allowing an average of 22.1 ppg. After surrendering 491.3 ypg to its first three 1-A opponents, Northern Illinois allowed only 318.8 ypg in its final seven games.

The Zips are not a very strong team on offense but their best game came against the Huskies where they totaled 48 points and 525 yards of offense, both season highs. Only six points were scored in overtime so the numbers are not inflated because of that. The rushing offense finished 9th in the MAC with only 113 ypg but Akron did average 156.5 ypg in its final four games which should provide some good momentum as the Huskies allowed 163.3 ypg on the ground over that same span.

Both teams finished with six wins against the number this year but it was Northern Illinois who performed better away from home, going 4-1-1 ATS on the road. These teams have only played twice in the past five year with the home team winning and covering. Akron finished the season with its final five games and seven of its final eight games going under. The Huskies went 3-1 under at home but 2-3 under on the road although they ended the year with a 4-1-1 under run. Both teams play their home games on the fake stuff so neither has an edge playing at Ford Field on the FieldTurf.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm